Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 6?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$10.1K
$46.7
98.5¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $9.2K | $9.0K | +$92.89 | 65% 3067-1635 (4702) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $755.04 | $760.46 | +$5.42 | 98% 7621-185 (7806) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 98.9¢ | $326.8 | $330.1 | +$3.29 | 34% 19319-36895 (56214) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $62.13 | $6.42 | -$54.88 | 46% 509-587 (1096) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.03 | $0.01 | -$0.02 | 40% 342-508 (850) |
Invested
$9,160.8
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$92.89
Record
65%
3067-1635 (4702)
Invested
$755.04
Value
$760.46
PnL
+$5.42
Record
98%
7621-185 (7806)
Invested
$326.8
Value
$330.1
PnL
+$3.29
Record
34%
19319-36895 (56214)
Invested
$62.13
Value
$6.42
PnL
-$54.88
Record
46%
509-587 (1096)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
342-508 (850)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.