Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 8?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $655 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$654.89
$18.3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $628.83 | $646.89 | +$18.06 | 65% 3071-1638 (4709) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | No | $7.9 | $7.9 | +$0.24 | 67% 27587-13890 (41477) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.07 | $0.08 | +$0.01 | 49% 10541-11187 (21728) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.04 | $0.02 | -$0.01 | 40% 344-511 (855) |
Invested
$628.83
Value
$646.89
PnL
+$18.06
Record
65%
3071-1638 (4709)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$0.24
Record
67%
27587-13890 (41477)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
10541-11187 (21728)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.01
Record
40%
344-511 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.