Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$10.8K
$13.06
91.7¢ → 97.8¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.3K | $4.6K | +$239.24 | 0% 1-647 (648) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $4.7K | $4.3K | -$385.14 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$152.2 | 39% 27-42 (69) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 95.9¢ | $618 | $625.66 | +$7.66 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.5 | $2.59 | -$0.91 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
Invested
$4,315.77
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$239.24
Record
0%
1-647 (648)
Invested
$4,658.88
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$385.14
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$1,149.48
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$152.2
Record
39%
27-42 (69)
Invested
$618
Value
$625.66
PnL
+$7.66
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.91
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.