Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 9?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 98¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 9

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$174.23

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 98.3¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares13,576

Combined PnL+$298.29

No2 traders

Total Value$186.78

Total Shares6,300

Combined PnL-$124.06

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 95.6¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	+$147.2	69% 5130-2295 (7425)
KI kingofcoinflips	Yesavg 95.1¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$126.68	54% 745-630 (1375)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 99.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$26.28	90% 5636-601 (6237)
19 196874353278	Yesavg 95¢	$1.1K	$607.6	+$87.34	39% 503-771 (1274)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 96.3¢	$475.11	$386.7	-$38.41	32% 21924-45779 (67703)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 90.7¢	$170	$158.61	+$4.42	63% 958-570 (1528)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 97.1¢	$265.04	$117.38	-$2.65	51% 15075-14265 (29340)
TI timetowanderCTR	Noavg 3.2¢	$159.98	$93.94	-$66.04	35% 430-801 (1231)
viniiCTR<$100	Noavg 7.5¢	$91.07	$92.83	-$58.02	74% 3348-1188 (4536)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$5,922.57

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$147.2

Record

69%

5130-2295 (7425)

kingofcoinflips

Yes

Invested

$3,784.05

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$126.68

Record

54%

745-630 (1375)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$2,083.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$26.28

Record

90%

5636-601 (6237)

196874353278

Yes

Invested

$1,120.35

Value

$607.6

PnL

+$87.34

Record

39%

503-771 (1274)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$475.11

Value

$386.7

PnL

-$38.41

Record

32%

21924-45779 (67703)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$158.61

PnL

+$4.42

Record

63%

958-570 (1528)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$265.04

Value

$117.38

PnL

-$2.65

Record

51%

15075-14265 (29340)

timetowanderCTR

Invested

$159.98

Value

$93.94

PnL

-$66.04

Record

35%

430-801 (1231)

viniiCTR<$100

Invested

$91.07

Value

$92.83

PnL

-$58.02

Record

74%

3348-1188 (4536)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.