Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 10?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.1K
-$87.87
96.8¢ → 92¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$89.5 | 69% 5130-2295 (7425) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.9¢ | $1.79 | $10.57 | +$1.99 | 54% 745-630 (1375) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $9.82 | $9.59 | -$0.39 | 51% 15051-14246 (29297) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Noavg 17.8¢ | $3.16 | $2.99 | -$0.17 | 33% 1271-2597 (3868) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.4¢ | $0.46 | $0.66 | +$0.2 | 39% 502-771 (1273) |
Invested
$2,190.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$89.5
Record
69%
5130-2295 (7425)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$10.57
PnL
+$1.99
Record
54%
745-630 (1375)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.82
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
15051-14246 (29297)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$2.99
PnL
-$0.17
Record
33%
1271-2597 (3868)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0.2
Record
39%
502-771 (1273)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.