Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $642 held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$642.12

Combined PnL

$30.49

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 100¢

+72% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$173.27

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$24.84

Down10 traders

Total Value$297.23

Total Shares360

Combined PnL+$5.66

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$115.65	$145.51	+$29.86	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 54.4¢	$127.53	$143.39	+$15.85	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$90.35	$95.87	+$5.53	49% 80904-84349 (165253)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$37.73	$73.01	+$35.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$52.61	$22.87	-$29.75
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$68.37	$75.74	+$7.38	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$40.17	$43.21	+$3.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.6¢	$28.2	$32.53	+$4.33
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$45.03	$41.98	-$3.05	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$49.01	$38.32	-$10.69	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$12.02	$20	+$7.98	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$25.4	$14.67	-$10.73	65% 130170-70085 (200255)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$9.66	$12.62	+$2.96	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 74¢	$8.88	$11.99	+$3.11	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
OhioAICTR<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$15.17	$10.38	-$4.8	54% 10448-8804 (19252)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$5.48	$9.09	+$3.61	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$12.14	$8.3	-$3.84	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 41¢	$5	$7.13	+$2.13	65% 114535-61562 (176097)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 34.8¢	$6.95	$5.7	-$1.25	61% 46036-29200 (75236)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$2.08	$1.42	-$0.66	61% 98537-62529 (161066)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$115.65

Value

$145.51

PnL

+$29.86

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$127.53

Value

$143.39

PnL

+$15.85

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.35

Value

$95.87

PnL

+$5.53

Record

49%

80904-84349 (165253)

Both legs:

Up$37.7337¢+$35.27

Down$52.6165.6¢-$29.75

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.37

Value

$75.74

PnL

+$7.38

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

Both legs:

Down$40.1765.5¢+$3.05

Up$28.225.6¢+$4.33

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$45.03

Value

$41.98

PnL

-$3.05

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$49.01

Value

$38.32

PnL

-$10.69

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12.02

Value

$20

PnL

+$7.98

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$25.4

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$10.73

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$9.66

Value

$12.62

PnL

+$2.96

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$8.88

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$3.11

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

OhioAICTR<$100

Invested

$15.17

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$4.8

Record

54%

10448-8804 (19252)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$5.48

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$3.61

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$3.84

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$2.13

Record

65%

114535-61562 (176097)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.95

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$1.25

Record

61%

46036-29200 (75236)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.66

Record

61%

98537-62529 (161066)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.