Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$617.94
-$171.24
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 29.4¢ | $105.83 | $277.17 | +$171.34 | 56% 77345-59726 (137071) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 23.8¢ | $85.49 | $118.21 | +$32.73 | 47% 6472-7172 (13644) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.9¢ | $41.29 | $118.21 | +$76.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.8¢ | $44.2 | — | -$44.2 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 50.3¢ | $177.11 | — | -$177.11 | 51% 10467-9935 (20402) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.5¢ | $99.6 | $105.76 | +$6.16 | 51% 12016-11488 (23504) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $126.75 | $79.55 | -$47.2 | 45% 40037-47965 (88002) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $85.65 | — | -$85.65 | 49% 80904-84349 (165253) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93.5¢ | $17.96 | $11 | -$5.97 | 65% 130170-70085 (200255) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 63% 42391-25095 (67486) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.2¢ | $10.59 | — | -$10.59 | 61% 46036-29200 (75236) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $8.1 | $15.25 | +$7.15 | 30% 12152-28123 (40275) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.2¢ | $5.03 | — | -$5.03 | 66% 130579-67519 (198098) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $7.76 | $6 | -$1.76 | 55% 51621-42810 (94431) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $3.08 | $5 | +$1.92 | 54% 10448-8804 (19252) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.92 | — | -$0.92 | 59% 63884-45002 (108886) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.3¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 61% 98537-62529 (161066) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 35.1¢ | $8.78 | — | -$8.78 | 58% 63234-46452 (109686) |
Invested
$105.83
Value
$277.17
PnL
+$171.34
Record
56%
77345-59726 (137071)
Invested
$85.49
Value
$118.21
PnL
+$32.73
Record
47%
6472-7172 (13644)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.11
Value
—
PnL
-$177.11
Record
51%
10467-9935 (20402)
Invested
$99.6
Value
$105.76
PnL
+$6.16
Record
51%
12016-11488 (23504)
pspspsps5Invested
$126.75
Value
$79.55
PnL
-$47.2
Record
45%
40037-47965 (88002)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$85.65
Value
—
PnL
-$85.65
Record
49%
80904-84349 (165253)
Invested
$17.96
Value
$11
PnL
-$5.97
Record
65%
130170-70085 (200255)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
63%
42391-25095 (67486)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.59
Value
—
PnL
-$10.59
Record
61%
46036-29200 (75236)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$15.25
PnL
+$7.15
Record
30%
12152-28123 (40275)
Invested
$5.03
Value
—
PnL
-$5.03
Record
66%
130579-67519 (198098)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.76
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.76
Record
55%
51621-42810 (94431)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$3.08
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.92
Record
54%
10448-8804 (19252)
Invested
$0.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
59%
63884-45002 (108886)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
61%
98537-62529 (161066)
Invested
$8.78
Value
—
PnL
-$8.78
Record
58%
63234-46452 (109686)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Up — $277.17
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $105.76
pspspsps5
Up — $79.55
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $11
ohioism
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
Up — $15.25