Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (87%) · Up at 100¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

Total Value

$345.83

Combined PnL

$4.08

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$344.75

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$4.09

Down2 traders

Total Value$1.08

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$0.01

Up — 87%Down — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 92.8¢	$113.23	$108.87	-$4.37	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$107.91	$108.46	+$0.55	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$23.77	$26.91	+$3.14	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$16.76	$19.79	+$3.03	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$16.15	$17.2	+$1.05	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.2	-$0.6	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 85¢	$15.91	$15.31	-$0.6	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 82¢	$8.7	$9.12	+$0.42	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$7.75	$8.9	+$1.15	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 83¢	$4.35	$4.51	+$0.16	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$3.1	$3.13	+$0.03	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.88	$3.03	+$0.15	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 87¢	$2.34	$2.32	-$0.03	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.98	+$0.03	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.14	$0.11	-$0.04	59% 62677-43754 (106431)

ply-pm2

Invested

$113.23

Value

$108.87

PnL

-$4.37

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

hoodquant

Invested

$107.91

Value

$108.46

PnL

+$0.55

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$26.91

PnL

+$3.14

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$16.76

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$3.03

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$16.15

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$1.05

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$0.6

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$7.75

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$1.15

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.03

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.04

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.