Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $381 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$380.7

Combined PnL

$24.2

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$153.76

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$2.98

Up7 traders

Total Value$176.98

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$21.22

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$82.16	$79.37	-$2.79	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 58¢	$51.9	$73.41	+$21.51	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$67.44	$73.32	+$5.88	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 92¢	$60.07	$60.39	+$0.33	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$57.73	$49.97	-$7.76	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$34.7	$26.23	-$8.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$23.03	$23.74	+$0.7
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$22.2	$20	-$2.2	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 35¢	$7.48	$10.8	+$3.31	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89¢	$6.51	$6.77	+$0.26	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.63	+$0.22	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$1.15	$1.03	-$0.12	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 39¢	$10.97	$0.99	-$2.2	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.02	$0.03	+$0.01	65% 112572-59423 (171995)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.16

Value

$79.37

PnL

-$2.79

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$51.9

Value

$73.41

PnL

+$21.51

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.44

Value

$73.32

PnL

+$5.88

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$60.07

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.73

Value

$49.97

PnL

-$7.76

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Both legs:

Down$34.765.5¢-$8.46

Up$23.0349¢+$0.7

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$2.2

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$7.48

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$3.31

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$0.26

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.22

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.12

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$2.2

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.