Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $142 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$142.04

Combined PnL

$18.43

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$133.68

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$18.11

Down4 traders

Total Value$8.37

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$0.32

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$67.4	$87.13	+$19.73	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$14.02	$15	+$0.98	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.7¢	$10.02	$10.67	+$0.65	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.12	$7.96	-$1.16	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 45¢	$2.25	$3.73	+$1.48	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 84¢	$5.88	$3.54	-$2.34	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.88	$3.03	+$0.15	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$3.04	$2.84	-$0.2	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 77¢	$4.01	$2.63	-$1.38	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$0.9	$2.48	+$1.58	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.03	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 3.9¢	$1.75	$0.68	-$1.08	46% 38677-45770 (84447)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$67.4

Value

$87.13

PnL

+$19.73

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$14.02

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.98

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.65

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$1.16

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$1.48

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$2.34

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.2

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$1.38

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$1.58

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$1.08

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.