Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$430.64
-$2.48
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $293.89 | $291.33 | -$2.56 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $133.46 | $42.36 | -$73.05 | 54% 14578-12427 (27005) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.7¢ | $78.48 | — | -$79.16 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.6¢ | $36.25 | $42.36 | +$6.11 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $41.92 | $46.95 | +$5.02 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $36.5 | $50 | +$13.5 | 74% 103044-36553 (139597) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $6.4 | — | -$6.4 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.4¢ | $3.08 | — | -$3.08 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $5.95 | — | -$5.95 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $3.02 | — | -$3.02 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 60.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 58907-33468 (92375) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20375-19462 (39837) |
Invested
$293.89
Value
$291.33
PnL
-$2.56
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Invested
$133.46
Value
$42.36
PnL
-$73.05
Record
54%
14578-12427 (27005)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.92
Value
$46.95
PnL
+$5.02
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$36.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.5
Record
74%
103044-36553 (139597)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
—
PnL
-$6.4
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$3.08
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Invested
$5.95
Value
—
PnL
-$5.95
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$3.02
Value
—
PnL
-$3.02
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
58907-33468 (92375)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20375-19462 (39837)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $291.33
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $46.95
BoneOhio
Down — $50
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $0
hoodquant
Down — $0