Exact Score: FCI Levadia Tallinn 0 - 1 Nomme Kalju FC?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $368 held · ended Nov 7

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$368.15

Combined PnL

$17.39

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 94.8¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$342.91

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$12.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$25.24

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$4.56

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.1¢	$140.28	$148.94	+$8.66	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LO looppau<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.9	+$0	99% 12963-107 (13070)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$64.54	$68.71	+$4.17	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
PE pelik<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.35	$25.35	+$0	99% 5179-74 (5253)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$10.6	$12.53	+$1.93	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$8.3	$10.4	+$2.1	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.46	$1.9	+$0.44	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.32	$0.42	+$0.1	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

MadridTime

Invested

$140.28

Value

$148.94

PnL

+$8.66

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

looppau<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

12963-107 (13070)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$64.54

Value

$68.71

PnL

+$4.17

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

pelik<$100

Invested

$25.35

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

5179-74 (5253)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$1.93

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$2.1

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.