Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$319.74

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 68.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,852

Combined PnL+$349.04

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,766

Combined PnL-$29.3

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$169.08	21% 61-231 (292)
MaoZeDonK	Underavg 63¢	$1,000	$1.2K	+$182.7	54% 33-28 (61)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 37.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29.54	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 38.3¢	$774.3	$641.57	-$132.73	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.3¢	$574.11	$396.79	-$177.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.1¢	$200.19	$244.78	+$44.59
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$46.94	$47.63	+$0.7	37% 957-1658 (2615)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 43¢	$31.47	$29.27	-$2.2	37% 966-1630 (2596)
RN1<$100	Underavg 44¢	$19.64	$19.87	+$0.22	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 43¢	$18.46	$17.17	-$1.29	36% 928-1642 (2570)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$11.1	$11.25	+$0.15	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$3.53	$3.59	+$0.06	52% 812-742 (1554)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	35% 438-797 (1235)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.49	$2.32	-$0.17	36% 945-1666 (2611)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$1,311.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$169.08

Record

21%

61-231 (292)

MaoZeDonK

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$182.7

Record

54%

33-28 (61)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,144.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29.54

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$774.3

Value

$641.57

PnL

-$132.73

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

Over$574.1138.3¢-$177.32

Under$200.1960.1¢+$44.59

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$46.94

Value

$47.63

PnL

+$0.7

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$31.47

Value

$29.27

PnL

-$2.2

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$19.64

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$18.46

Value

$17.17

PnL

-$1.29

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.17

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.