Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 31¢ · $518 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
1 arb excluded
$517.67
-$26.05
Research grade
NeutralOver at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 68.9¢ | $363.75 | $439.33 | +$75.58 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 68.9¢ | $314.37 | $337.47 | +$23.1 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 12.6¢ | $49.38 | $101.86 | +$52.48 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $48 | $25.6 | -$22.4 | 56% 461-367 (828) |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $27 | $23.81 | -$3.19 | 64% 300-171 (471) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 16.1¢ | $15.24 | $13.69 | -$1.55 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $4.4 | $4.2 | -$0.2 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $6.42 | $3.54 | -$2.88 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $3.4 | +$1.9 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $1.1 | $2.17 | +$1.08 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 10.3¢ | $0.73 | $1.93 | +$1.2 | 55% 5362-4302 (9664) |
Invested
$363.75
Value
$439.33
PnL
+$75.58
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Both legs:
Invested
$48
Value
$25.6
PnL
-$22.4
Record
56%
461-367 (828)
Invested
$27
Value
$23.81
PnL
-$3.19
Record
64%
300-171 (471)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$13.69
PnL
-$1.55
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.42
Value
$3.54
PnL
-$2.88
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$1.9
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$1.08
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$1.93
PnL
+$1.2
Record
55%
5362-4302 (9664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.