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No
RN1CTR<$100YesYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Exact Score: Real Valladolid CF 1 - 1 CD Castellón?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$85.05
Combined PnL
-$0.67
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares21
Combined PnL-$2.75
No1 trader
Total Value$0.05
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$2.08
Yes — 75%No — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $112.52 | $85 | -$27.52 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87.6¢ | $74.5 | $85 | +$10.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $38.02 | — | -$38.02 | |
RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 55% 5370-4319 (9689) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.09 | — | -$0.09 | 47% 899-999 (1898) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.81 | $0.05 | +$2.08 | 39% 3653-5798 (9451) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $225 | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$112.52
Value
$85
PnL
-$27.52
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Both legs:
No$74.587.6¢+$10.5
Yes$38.0212.5¢-$38.02
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
55%
5370-4319 (9689)
SN
SnakeBallCTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
—
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
899-999 (1898)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$3.81
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$2.08
Record
39%
3653-5798 (9451)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTRInvested
$225
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x71d905ea...e85df2
Slug
es2-vld-cas-2026-11-14-exact-score-1-1