Will CD Castellón win on 2026-11-14?

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 55¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$14.28

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares22,407

Combined PnL+$114.31

No15 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares22,684

Combined PnL-$100.02

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$10.1K	$10.2K	+$114.31	2% 3-133 (136)
LI Limousin	Noavg 55¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$41.12	36% 926-1642 (2568)
RN1	Noavg 55¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$25	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Noavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$11.36	49% 635-674 (1309)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 54.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0.25	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.13	35% 437-797 (1234)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 55¢	$458.22	$454.05	-$4.17	40% 115-174 (289)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54.5¢	$462.51	$435.99	-$0.09	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 55¢	$373.41	$370.02	-$3.39	37% 956-1658 (2614)
VE Venusian	Noavg 55¢	$131.46	$130.26	-$1.2	36% 944-1666 (2610)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 55¢	$114.95	$113.91	-$1.04	48% 285-304 (589)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 54¢	$54	$54.5	+$0.5	35% 104-192 (296)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 55¢	$49.25	$48.8	-$0.45	37% 965-1630 (2595)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 58¢	$38.8	$36.8	-$2.01	56% 460-366 (826)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13	$12.88	-$0.12	60% 707-480 (1187)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$8.12	$8.12	+$0	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.5	-$0.2	43% 29-38 (67)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	42% 989-1357 (2346)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,070.27

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$114.31

Record

3-133 (136)

Limousin

Invested

$4,523.12

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$41.12

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

RN1

Invested

$2,750

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$1,249.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.36

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,150.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,114.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.13

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$458.22

Value

$454.05

PnL

-$4.17

Record

40%

115-174 (289)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$462.51

Value

$435.99

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

LightParadox

Invested

$373.41

Value

$370.02

PnL

-$3.39

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

Venusian

Invested

$131.46

Value

$130.26

PnL

-$1.2

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$114.95

Value

$113.91

PnL

-$1.04

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$54.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$49.25

Value

$48.8

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

$36.8

PnL

-$2.01

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

60%

707-480 (1187)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.12

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

29-38 (67)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.