Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-11-09?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 9

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$237.77

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 54.5¢

+10% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,591

Combined PnL+$429.42

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,598

Combined PnL-$191.66

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 50.1¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$281.93	—
LI LiquidifierCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$148.68	—
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.15	—
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$44	—
RN1	Noavg 50¢	$534.8	$593.19	+$58.38	—
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 46¢	$968.92	$479.62	+$33.91	—
VE Venusian	Noavg 52¢	$271.44	$289.98	+$18.54	—
NM NM-P	Noavg 49¢	$152.88	$154.44	+$1.56	—
LI LightParadox	Noavg 46.2¢	$100.78	$122.18	+$21.4	—
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44¢	$55.49	$57.15	+$1.66	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 51¢	$42.23	$41.82	-$0.41	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$21.47	$22.51	+$1.04	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 45¢	$19.26	$20.72	+$1.47	—
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$20.1	$10.15	-$0.7	—
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.43	$6.11	+$0.68	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5	$5.15	+$0.15	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$4.73	$5.12	+$0.38	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$4.65	+$0.3	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,948.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$281.93

Record

—

LiquidifierCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,662.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$148.68

Record

—

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,014.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.15

Record

—

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,055.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$44

Record

—

RN1

Invested

$534.8

Value

$593.19

PnL

+$58.38

Record

—

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$968.92

Value

$479.62

PnL

+$33.91

Record

—

Venusian

Invested

$271.44

Value

$289.98

PnL

+$18.54

Record

—

NM-P

Invested

$152.88

Value

$154.44

PnL

+$1.56

Record

—

LightParadox

Invested

$100.78

Value

$122.18

PnL

+$21.4

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$1.66

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$42.23

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.47

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$1.04

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$19.26

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$1.47

Record

—

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.1

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Invested

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.