Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$7.8

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,831

Combined PnL+$14.28

Over4 traders

Total Value$581.39

Total Shares1,175

Combined PnL-$6.48

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$33.98	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR	Overavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5	21% 16-62 (78)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49.7¢	$441.3	$457.65	+$16.35	36% 945-1666 (2611)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 49.8¢	$375.89	$381.1	+$5.21	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$361.57	$372.41	+$10.85	47% 895-992 (1887)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$306.48	$322.12	+$15.64	37% 957-1658 (2615)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$70	$68.62	-$1.38	35% 260-485 (745)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.99	$22.2	+$0.22	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$13.9	$13.76	-$0.14	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.97	$4.01	+$0.04	49% 3811-3974 (7785)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,465.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$33.98

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$5

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$441.3

Value

$457.65

PnL

+$16.35

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$375.89

Value

$381.1

PnL

+$5.21

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$361.57

Value

$372.41

PnL

+$10.85

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$306.48

Value

$322.12

PnL

+$15.64

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70

Value

$68.62

PnL

-$1.38

Record

35%

260-485 (745)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$21.99

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$0.22

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.9

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.