Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 31¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$21.15

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 30.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,906

Combined PnL-$33.17

No1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,248

Combined PnL+$12.02

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pmCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$28.52	40% 25-38 (63)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Noavg 69¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$12.02	49% 615-643 (1258)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$208.32	$204.96	-$3.36	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$94.86	$93.33	-$1.53	45% 224-276 (500)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$36.05	$36.24	+$0.19	56% 426-340 (766)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$20.77	$20.44	-$0.34	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$18	$18.3	+$0.3	48% 269-290 (559)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$12.71	$8.31	+$0.09	53% 1186-1032 (2218)

dv-pmCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,768.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$28.52

Record

40%

25-38 (63)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$1,550.63

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$12.02

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.32

Value

$204.96

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.86

Value

$93.33

PnL

-$1.53

Record

45%

224-276 (500)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.05

Value

$36.24

PnL

+$0.19

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.77

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.71

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.