Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$81.67

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 44.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,133

Combined PnL+$83.01

No4 traders

Total Value$98.96

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$1.34

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$80.62	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	69% 131-59 (190)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$110	+$10
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$88	-$12
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.7¢	$68.42	$72.16	+$3.74	48% 2045-2201 (4246)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$68.27	$67.38	-$0.9	48% 285-304 (589)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$58.18	$56.82	-$1.36	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$19.36	$19.36	+$0	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Noavg 55¢	$12.22	$12.44	+$0.22	49% 635-674 (1309)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11.98	$12.09	+$0.11	37% 996-1673 (2669)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 61¢	$7.82	$7.05	-$0.77	55% 447-361 (808)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,150.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$80.62

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

69%

131-59 (190)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.42

Value

$72.16

PnL

+$3.74

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$68.27

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.18

Value

$56.82

PnL

-$1.36

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.36

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$11.98

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$0.11

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.77

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.