Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$835.65

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,759

Combined PnL-$843.74

Over2 traders

Total Value$29.18

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$8.09

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 70.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$55.58	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 65¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$491.83	59% 502-345 (847)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$504.82	$492.15	-$12.67	99% 460-7 (467)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 65.1¢	$559.77	$378.41	-$181.36	60% 712-483 (1195)
RN1	Underavg 61¢	$205.68	$148.36	-$57.32	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 65.7¢	$147.75	$91.51	-$44.84	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 66¢	$69.94	$70.2	+$0.26	56% 463-370 (833)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$21.76	$38.08	+$16.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$48.18	$32.12	-$16.06
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$19.95	$29.18	+$9.23	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.35	-$0.15	64% 300-171 (471)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.14	$0	-$1.14	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,570.77

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$55.58

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$1,522.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$491.83

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$504.82

Value

$492.15

PnL

-$12.67

Record

99%

460-7 (467)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$559.77

Value

$378.41

PnL

-$181.36

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

RN1

Under

Invested

$205.68

Value

$148.36

PnL

-$57.32

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$147.75

Value

$91.51

PnL

-$44.84

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$69.94

Value

$70.2

PnL

+$0.26

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

Both legs:

Over$21.7632¢+$16.32

Under$48.1866¢-$16.06

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.95

Value

$29.18

PnL

+$9.23

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.14

Value

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.