RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 1.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$361.64

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,902

Combined PnL-$469.63

Under10 traders

Total Value$295.72

Total Shares1,827

Combined PnL+$107.99

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 96.7¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$470.66	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
SM smithagent	Overavg 97.3¢	$126.49	$126.1	-$0.39	44% 661-825 (1486)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 12.3¢	$70.31	$102.31	+$32	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 7.6¢	$36.37	$85.67	+$49.3	36% 950-1657 (2607)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 96¢	$70.08	$70.81	+$0.73	45% 814-997 (1811)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 12.9¢	$47.46	$65.74	+$18.28	37% 968-1674 (2642)
dips.<$100	Overavg 97.3¢	$35.4	$35.29	-$0.11	47% 973-1108 (2081)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$10.99	$22.52	+$11.53	48% 912-1002 (1914)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 93¢	$18.6	$19.4	+$0.8	40% 139-209 (348)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 15.7¢	$10.98	$11.49	+$0.51	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 5.8¢	$5.8	$3	-$2.8	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$2.78	$2.11	-$0.67	36% 455-810 (1265)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 14.4¢	$2.21	$1.93	-$0.28	37% 78-132 (210)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 8.3¢	$0.63	$0.65	+$0.03	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 2.1¢	$0.21	$0.3	+$0.09	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$4,120.81

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$470.66

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

smithagent

Over

Invested

$126.49

Value

$126.1

PnL

-$0.39

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$70.31

Value

$102.31

PnL

+$32

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.37

Value

$85.67

PnL

+$49.3

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$70.08

Value

$70.81

PnL

+$0.73

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.46

Value

$65.74

PnL

+$18.28

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$35.4

Value

$35.29

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.99

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$11.53

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$18.6

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.98

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.8

Value

PnL

-$2.8

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.67

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.21

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.28

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.