RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$615.16

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,689

Combined PnL+$609.23

Over2 traders

Total Value$45.11

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$5.93

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.6¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$564.59	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 84.1¢	$604.42	$718.58	+$114.17	64% 303-171 (474)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$29.6	$35.9	+$6.3	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 59¢	$75.79	$32.12	-$43.68	60% 714-484 (1198)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Underavg 98.3¢	$25.94	$26.27	+$0.33	99% 468-7 (475)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 59¢	$47.79	$20.25	-$27.54	55% 474-384 (858)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$9.58	$9.22	-$0.37	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$4.91	$6.32	+$1.41	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.18	-$0.03	83% 729-152 (881)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.79	$2.76	-$0.03	37% 968-1674 (2642)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,018.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$564.59

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$604.42

Value

$718.58

PnL

+$114.17

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.6

Value

$35.9

PnL

+$6.3

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$75.79

Value

$32.12

PnL

-$43.68

Record

60%

714-484 (1198)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Under

Invested

$25.94

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$0.33

Record

99%

468-7 (475)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$47.79

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$27.54

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.91

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$1.41

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.