Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 30¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$162.96

Smart Money Entry

38.7¢ → 30¢

-23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,684

Combined PnL+$8.44

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,615

Combined PnL-$171.39

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Noavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	48% 635-675 (1310)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$1.0K	$821.52	-$168.21	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$799.58	$789.33	-$10.25	11% 36-290 (326)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 62¢	$79.06	$87.35	+$8.29	36% 979-1704 (2683)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$77.86	$83.06	+$5.2	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$30.03	$29.65	-$0.38	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7	$7.3	+$0.3	31% 356-791 (1147)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$5.1	$6.7	+$1.6	44% 386-482 (868)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$3.66	$3.73	+$0.07	48% 526-562 (1088)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.13	+$0.02	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.96	$3.06	+$0.1	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.4	$2.68	+$0.28	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.53	+$0.03	55% 502-403 (905)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$1,552.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,024.07

Value

$821.52

PnL

-$168.21

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$799.58

Value

$789.33

PnL

-$10.25

Record

11%

36-290 (326)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$79.06

Value

$87.35

PnL

+$8.29

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.86

Value

$83.06

PnL

+$5.2

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.03

Value

$29.65

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

31%

356-791 (1147)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$1.6

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

526-562 (1088)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.28

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.