Will Girona FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$17.09

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 70.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,962

Combined PnL+$24.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$231.12

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$7.7

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$77.63	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$100.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$1.1K	$938.12	-$178.43
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Noavg 69¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$26.35	4% 19-517 (536)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Noavg 68¢	$214.1	$212.56	-$1.54	48% 526-562 (1088)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$160.14	$154.98	-$5.17	48% 635-675 (1310)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$117.89	$115.45	-$2.44	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.9¢	$84.59	$81.63	-$2.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$33.3	$33.82	+$0.52
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$39.37	$38.1	-$1.27	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$39.3	$38.04	-$1.27	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.68	$8.62	-$0.06	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 67¢	$1.66	$1.71	+$0.05	55% 502-403 (905)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,364.06

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$77.63

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Both legs:

No$1,247.5168¢+$100.79

Yes$1,116.5531.5¢-$178.43

JAMJAMJAM4

Invested

$1,817.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$26.35

Record

19-517 (536)

CandleHammerDrums

Invested

$214.1

Value

$212.56

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

526-562 (1088)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.14

Value

$154.98

PnL

-$5.17

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$117.89

Value

$115.45

PnL

-$2.44

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Both legs:

No$84.5969.9¢-$2.96

Yes$33.332¢+$0.52

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.37

Value

$38.1

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.3

Value

$38.04

PnL

-$1.27

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.