Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 54¢ · $754 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$753.59
-$10.76
53.6¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Noavg 54.2¢ | $271.23 | $265 | -$6.23 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53¢ | $225.53 | $225.53 | -$4.26 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | $201 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $106 | +$5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $95 | -$5 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $51.02 | $51.02 | -$0.48 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.83 | $11.04 | +$0.21 | 48% 403-445 (848) |
Invested
$271.23
Value
$265
PnL
-$6.23
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
Invested
$225.53
Value
$225.53
PnL
-$4.26
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$200
Value
$201
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.02
Value
$51.02
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
Invested
$10.83
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
403-445 (848)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.