Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 53¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 53¢

+44% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,827

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under13 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares20,164

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 63.6¢	$5.0K	$3.7K	$-1.3K	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 68.6¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$218.7	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.4¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$454.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.6¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$672.75
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 43.5¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$341.37	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 30.8¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$909.6	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 29.8¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$825.41	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
LI Limousin	Underavg 33.7¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$691.6	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
VE Venusian	Underavg 33.2¢	$444.79	$664.13	+$219.34	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
MI MinevaJARB<$100	Overavg 72.9¢	$1.3K	$584.38	-$106.87	29% 50-123 (173)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72.9¢	$424.3	$361.01	-$171.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.9¢	$158.33	$223.37	+$65.03
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49.8¢	$503.29	$383.55	-$119.74	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 51¢	$452.72	$336.8	-$115.92	59% 747-512 (1259)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$201.45	$191.29	-$10.16	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.8¢	$161.84	$144.56	-$17.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.3¢	$39.61	$46.73	+$7.12
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$129.26	$113.06	-$16.2	41% 127-186 (313)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$80.56	$62.18	-$18.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.2¢	$48.7	$50.89	+$2.19
VeryLucky888	Underavg 23¢	$70.58	$110.36	+$39.79	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$139.4	$101.71	-$37.69	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
WA WagerWizardCTR	Overavg 95.1¢	$106.32	$69.38	-$36.94	51% 242-233 (475)
0X 0xc4fd4e711cb3b5bccc6b744f916fb6fae7a90677CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46.66	$46.15	-$0.51	— 5-9 (14)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$34.32	$33.17	-$1.15	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$37	$31.03	-$5.97	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 73¢	$14.27	$12.13	-$2.14	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.13	$11.78	+$0.65	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 52¢	$13.95	$11.57	-$2.38	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 36.3¢	$9.2	$9.61	+$0.41	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Underavg 51¢	$6.24	$4.65	-$1.6	41% 166-237 (403)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$3.1	+$0.9	35% 635-1160 (1795)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 69.6¢	$33.58	$1	+$0.08	48% 1307-1398 (2705)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$4,981.27

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,777.81

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$218.7

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Under$1,782.1643.4¢+$454.05

Over$1,995.6568.6¢-$672.75

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,036.54

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$341.37

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$1,130.27

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$909.6

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,185.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$825.41

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$1,066.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$691.6

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$444.79

Value

$664.13

PnL

+$219.34

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

MinevaJARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,326.4

Value

$584.38

PnL

-$106.87

Record

29%

50-123 (173)

Both legs:

Over$424.372.9¢-$171.91

Under$158.3326.9¢+$65.03

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$503.29

Value

$383.55

PnL

-$119.74

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$452.72

Value

$336.8

PnL

-$115.92

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$201.45

Value

$191.29

PnL

-$10.16

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Both legs:

Over$161.8458.8¢-$17.28

Under$39.6140.3¢+$7.12

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$129.26

Value

$113.06

PnL

-$16.2

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

Both legs:

Over$80.5659¢-$18.38

Under$48.752.2¢+$2.19

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$70.58

Value

$110.36

PnL

+$39.79

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$139.4

Value

$101.71

PnL

-$37.69

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

WagerWizardCTR

Over

Invested

$106.32

Value

$69.38

PnL

-$36.94

Record

51%

242-233 (475)

0xc4fd4e711cb3b5bccc6b744f916fb6fae7a90677CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.66

Value

$46.15

PnL

-$0.51

Record

—

5-9 (14)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.32

Value

$33.17

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37

Value

$31.03

PnL

-$5.97

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.27

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$2.14

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$11.13

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.65

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$13.95

Value

$11.57

PnL

-$2.38

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

mouzsynapse<$100

Under

Invested

$6.24

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.6

Record

41%

166-237 (403)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.58

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.