Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,888

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Over3 traders

Total Value$13.92

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$13.01

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 66¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$963.75	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
VE Venusian	Underavg 34¢	$173.71	$486.81	+$313.1	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 81¢	$305.56	$377.11	+$71.55	41% 739-1047 (1786)
SU suntori	Underavg 30¢	$48.75	$158.55	+$109.8	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 67.5¢	$69.87	$103.47	+$33.6	65% 353-190 (543)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 63.4¢	$42.8	$67.43	+$24.63	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 40.3¢	$16.13	$29.87	+$13.74	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$22.16	$13.9	-$8.26	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 15.9¢	$2.8	$0.02	-$2.78	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.97	$0.01	-$1.97	35% 635-1160 (1795)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,229.38

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,319.85

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$963.75

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$173.71

Value

$486.81

PnL

+$313.1

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$305.56

Value

$377.11

PnL

+$71.55

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

suntori

Under

Invested

$48.75

Value

$158.55

PnL

+$109.8

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$69.87

Value

$103.47

PnL

+$33.6

Record

65%

353-190 (543)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$42.8

Value

$67.43

PnL

+$24.63

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$16.13

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$13.74

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.16

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$8.26

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.78

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.97

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.97

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.