Will Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw?

7 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$216.86

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 83.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 23 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,118

Combined PnL+$308.38

Yes16 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares6,863

Combined PnL-$91.52

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.5¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$209.69	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$591.96	$607.2	+$15.24	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71.3¢	$498.14	$557.9	+$59.77	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$339.36	$254.87	-$2.62	29% 50-123 (173)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$228.33	$250.09	+$21.76	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.9¢	$128.04	$153.59	+$25.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.2¢	$100.29	$96.51	-$3.79
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$155.05	$163.23	+$8.18	35% 635-1160 (1795)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 63.2¢	$105.74	$135.59	+$29.86	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$153.25	$113.05	-$40.2	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
dips.<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$87.26	$90.41	+$3.16	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$84.16	$56.11	-$28.05	48% 638-680 (1318)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$57.72	$54.86	-$2.86	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$42.24	$47.67	+$5.42	42% 548-748 (1296)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.8	$25.8	-$0	21% 11-42 (53)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 82¢	$23.78	$24.51	+$0.72	46% 882-1039 (1921)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.57	$20.57	-$0	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.1¢	$44.78	$19.25	-$25.53	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$15.65	$10.75	-$4.9	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$14	$8	-$6	78% 379-110 (489)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.39	$7.36	-$3.04	41% 127-186 (313)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.6	$4.37	-$0.23	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$3.98	$2.53	-$1.45	21% 65-249 (314)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$2.3	$2.25	-$0.05	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.71	$1.14	-$0.57	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.59	$0.9	+$0.31	49% 1336-1411 (2747)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,182.46

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$209.69

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$591.96

Value

$607.2

PnL

+$15.24

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

Flaznorp

Invested

$498.14

Value

$557.9

PnL

+$59.77

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$339.36

Value

$254.87

PnL

-$2.62

Record

29%

50-123 (173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$228.33

Value

$250.09

PnL

+$21.76

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Both legs:

No$128.0467.9¢+$25.55

Yes$100.2919.2¢-$3.79

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.05

Value

$163.23

PnL

+$8.18

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$105.74

Value

$135.59

PnL

+$29.86

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.25

Value

$113.05

PnL

-$40.2

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

dips.<$100

Invested

$87.26

Value

$90.41

PnL

+$3.16

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.16

Value

$56.11

PnL

-$28.05

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.72

Value

$54.86

PnL

-$2.86

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$42.24

Value

$47.67

PnL

+$5.42

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.8

Value

$25.8

PnL

-$0

Record

21%

11-42 (53)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$23.78

Value

$24.51

PnL

+$0.72

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.57

Value

$20.57

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.78

Value

$19.25

PnL

-$25.53

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.65

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$4.9

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

PnL

-$6

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.39

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$3.04

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.98

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$1.45

Record

21%

65-249 (314)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.57

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 23 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.