CD Eldense vs. CE Sabadell FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$475.53

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,905

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under6 traders

Total Value$824.96

Total Shares4,823

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 52.5¢	$1.6K	$3.1K	+$1.5K	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$775.95	$783.4	+$7.45	99% 667-9 (676)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 61.2¢	$960.36	$657.63	-$302.74	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 72.8¢	$117.56	$138.85	+$21.3	59% 751-515 (1266)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$88.6	$17.25	-$71.35	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$8.11	$9.56	+$1.44	56% 672-523 (1195)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.2	$5	+$3.8	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.6K	$1.65	$-1.6K	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$50.24	$0.04	-$50.2	65% 358-191 (549)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,636.73

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$775.95

Value

$783.4

PnL

+$7.45

Record

99%

667-9 (676)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$960.36

Value

$657.63

PnL

-$302.74

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$117.56

Value

$138.85

PnL

+$21.3

Record

59%

751-515 (1266)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.6

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$71.35

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.11

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$1.44

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

PnL

+$3.8

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,564.5

Value

$1.65

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.24

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$50.2

Record

65%

358-191 (549)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.