Will CD Eldense win on 2026-11-15?

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 97¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$362.74

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 97¢

+15% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,273

Combined PnL+$398.85

No12 traders

Total Value$184.16

Total Shares2,913

Combined PnL-$36.12

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.7¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$368.19	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
KM kmak1	Yesavg 97.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$104.69	— 7-10 (17)
Secondhandvinyl	Yesavg 97.5¢	$661.55	$636.75	-$24.8	78% 389-112 (501)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 85¢	$318.48	$301.73	-$16.75	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 73.7¢	$269.06	$245.6	-$23.46	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.7¢	$161.38	$192.63	+$31.25
└ No leg	Noavg 24.4¢	$107.67	$52.97	-$54.7
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 36¢	$137.52	$233.02	+$95.5	48% 487-523 (1010)
RI RichieRicher	Yesavg 97¢	$195.79	$198.13	+$2.34	55% 495-407 (902)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 86.4¢	$188	$182.21	-$5.79	50% 2859-2908 (5767)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 86.4¢	$131.92	$143.17	+$11.25
└ No leg	Noavg 8.9¢	$56.08	$39.04	-$17.04
NO NotJump	Yesavg 62.7¢	$96.72	$146.1	+$49.38	50% 1145-1157 (2302)
dips.ARB<$100	Yesavg 73.3¢	$102.96	$105.26	+$2.3	48% 1313-1406 (2719)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.3¢	$55.74	$59.66	+$3.92
└ No leg	Noavg 22.3¢	$47.22	$45.6	-$1.62
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 74.8¢	$73.41	$74.31	+$0.9	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$47.57	$53.12	+$5.55	48% 642-685 (1327)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$28.85	$43.12	+$14.27	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$31.23	$39.51	+$16.41	53% 1918-1675 (3593)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$40.5	$39.25	-$1.25	53% 7542-6645 (14187)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$40	$38.38	-$1.62	43% 568-764 (1332)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$38.78	$24.79	-$13.99	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$29.96	$19.48	-$10.49	36% 648-1177 (1825)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 95.3¢	$19.4	$18.93	-$0.47	52% 249-233 (482)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 74.2¢	$11.63	$15.39	+$3.76	17% 74-354 (428)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$20.9	$13.36	-$7.54	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 47.1¢	$12.2	$10.02	-$2.19	45% 992-1193 (2185)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$9.3	$6.95	-$2.35	46% 484-573 (1057)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 96.8¢	$10.59	$6.9	-$3.69	43% 561-752 (1313)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$7.96	$5.09	-$2.87	38% 1372-2226 (3598)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$3,441.14

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$368.19

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

kmak1

Yes

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$104.69

Record

—

7-10 (17)

Secondhandvinyl

Yes

Invested

$661.55

Value

$636.75

PnL

-$24.8

Record

78%

389-112 (501)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$318.48

Value

$301.73

PnL

-$16.75

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$269.06

Value

$245.6

PnL

-$23.46

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

Both legs:

Yes$161.3873.7¢+$31.25

No$107.6724.4¢-$54.7

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$137.52

Value

$233.02

PnL

+$95.5

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

RichieRicher

Yes

Invested

$195.79

Value

$198.13

PnL

+$2.34

Record

55%

495-407 (902)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$188

Value

$182.21

PnL

-$5.79

Record

50%

2859-2908 (5767)

Both legs:

Yes$131.9286.4¢+$11.25

No$56.088.9¢-$17.04

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$96.72

Value

$146.1

PnL

+$49.38

Record

50%

1145-1157 (2302)

dips.ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$102.96

Value

$105.26

PnL

+$2.3

Record

48%

1313-1406 (2719)

Both legs:

Invested

$73.41

Value

$74.31

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Invested

$47.57

Value

$53.12

PnL

+$5.55

Record

48%

642-685 (1327)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.85

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$14.27

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$39.51

PnL

+$16.41

Record

53%

1918-1675 (3593)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

7542-6645 (14187)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$38.38

PnL

-$1.62

Record

43%

568-764 (1332)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$38.78

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$13.99

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$29.96

Value

$19.48

PnL

-$10.49

Record

36%

648-1177 (1825)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.4

Value

$18.93

PnL

-$0.47

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.63

Value

$15.39

PnL

+$3.76

Record

17%

74-354 (428)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$20.9

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$7.54

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$2.19

Record

45%

992-1193 (2185)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$2.35

Record

46%

484-573 (1057)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.59

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$3.69

Record

43%

561-752 (1313)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$2.87

Record

38%

1372-2226 (3598)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.