SD Eibar vs. Cádiz CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$2.3K
$458.5
46.9¢ → 100¢
+113% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $975.61 | $887.01 | -$88.59 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 42.5¢ | $290.6 | $574.8 | +$284.21 | 38% 1375-2208 (3583) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 61.4¢ | $256.69 | $418.07 | +$161.38 | 65% 358-191 (549) |
 RN1 | Underavg 37.3¢ | $258.61 | $346.98 | +$88.37 | 54% 6042-5119 (11161) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10 | $19.99 | +$9.99 | 38% 1375-2257 (3632) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $13.61 | $16.8 | +$3.2 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 30.7¢ | $4.38 | $11.98 | +$7.6 | 38% 1374-2228 (3602) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $6.94 | $0.01 | -$6.93 | 38% 1353-2203 (3556) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $0.74 | $0 | -$0.74 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
Invested
$975.61
Value
$887.01
PnL
-$88.59
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$290.6
Value
$574.8
PnL
+$284.21
Record
38%
1375-2208 (3583)
Invested
$256.69
Value
$418.07
PnL
+$161.38
Record
65%
358-191 (549)
RN1Invested
$258.61
Value
$346.98
PnL
+$88.37
Record
54%
6042-5119 (11161)
Invested
$10
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$9.99
Record
38%
1375-2257 (3632)
Invested
$13.61
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$3.2
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$7.6
Record
38%
1374-2228 (3602)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$6.93
Record
38%
1353-2203 (3556)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.74
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.