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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Exact Score: SD Eibar 1 - 0 Cádiz CF?

Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$132.52

Combined PnL

-$8.69

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$17.99

No3 traders

Total Value$103.62

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$9.3

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$34.26	$28.9	-$5.36	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.8¢	$18.94	—	-$18.94
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$15.32	$28.9	+$13.58
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$14.4	—	-$14.4	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 95¢	$38	$40	+$2	52% 265-240 (505)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 80¢	$28.05	$35.06	+$7.01	30% 106-248 (354)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Noavg 99¢	$28.27	$28.56	+$0.29	98% 691-11 (702)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.89	—	-$2.89	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.7	—	-$0.7	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$107	—	+$0	63% 147-86 (233)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$34.26

Value

$28.9

PnL

-$5.36

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Yes$18.9414.8¢-$18.94

No$15.3253¢+$13.58

Invested

$14.4

Value

—

PnL

-$14.4

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$40

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

265-240 (505)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$28.05

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$7.01

Record

30%

106-248 (354)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Invested

$28.27

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$0.29

Record

98%

691-11 (702)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

—

PnL

-$2.89

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

—

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Invested

$107

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x14a42c75...8f6c20

Slug

es2-eib-cad-2026-11-15-exact-score-1-0

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

RN1

Yes — $0

WagerWizard

No — $40

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

No — $35.06

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

No — $28.56

VeryLucky888

Yes — $0

ferdinand2

Yes — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Yes — $0

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