Will SD Eibar win on 2026-11-15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 65¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$29.76

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,778

Combined PnL-$53.42

No6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,650

Combined PnL+$23.67

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8	Yesavg 65.2¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$57.28	74% 23-8 (31)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$927.66	$927.81	+$0.15	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$893.29	$909.53	+$16.24	42% 548-748 (1296)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.6¢	$480.23	$493.24	+$13.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$413.06	$416.28	+$3.23
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$895.48	$908.62	+$13.14	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$496.64	$500.53	+$3.88
└ No leg	Noavg 34.7¢	$398.83	$408.09	+$9.26
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35¢	$581.78	$590.53	+$8.75	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 35¢	$402.16	$407.91	+$5.75	48% 720-766 (1486)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 34.2¢	$245.3	$254.43	+$9.13	48% 472-515 (987)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 35¢	$148.73	$150.85	+$2.12	17% 62-300 (362)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 61.4¢	$63.86	$67.08	+$3.22	56% 656-516 (1172)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$42.32	$40.08	-$2.24	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 61.3¢	$159.26	$10.98	+$0.63	53% 1909-1671 (3580)

0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$57.28

Record

74%

23-8 (31)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$927.66

Value

$927.81

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$893.29

Value

$909.53

PnL

+$16.24

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

Both legs:

No$480.2334.6¢+$13.01

Yes$413.0664¢+$3.23

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$895.48

Value

$908.62

PnL

+$13.14

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

Both legs:

Yes$496.6464¢+$3.88

No$398.8334.7¢+$9.26

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$581.78

Value

$590.53

PnL

+$8.75

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$402.16

Value

$407.91

PnL

+$5.75

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$245.3

Value

$254.43

PnL

+$9.13

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$148.73

Value

$150.85

PnL

+$2.12

Record

17%

62-300 (362)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.86

Value

$67.08

PnL

+$3.22

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$42.32

Value

$40.08

PnL

-$2.24

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$159.26

Value

$10.98

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.