Spread: CD Tenerife (-1.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold AD Ceuta FC (36%) · AD Ceuta FC at 62¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

CD Tenerife38¢AD Ceuta FC62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AD Ceuta FC

Consensus Traders

AD Ceuta FC 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$23.92

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 62¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAD Ceuta FC at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AD Ceuta FC

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CD Tenerife38%

AD Ceuta FC62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AD Ceuta FC4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,411

Combined PnL+$24.44

CD Tenerife7 traders

Total Value$17.96

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$0.52

AD Ceuta FC — 36%CD Tenerife — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	AD Ceuta FCavg 72.9¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$51	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
RN1	AD Ceuta FCavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.13	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 50¢	$200	$204	+$4	64% 145-81 (226)
└ AD Ceuta FC leg	AD Ceuta FCavg 50¢	$100	$146	+$46
└ CD Tenerife leg	CD Tenerifeavg 50¢	$100	$58	-$42
WA WagerWizard	AD Ceuta FCavg 94.4¢	$120.27	$78.32	-$41.95	51% 238-233 (471)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	AD Ceuta FCavg 66.6¢	$64	$68.05	+$4.05	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ AD Ceuta FC leg	AD Ceuta FCavg 66.6¢	$53.36	$41.68	-$11.68
└ CD Tenerife leg	CD Tenerifeavg 19.4¢	$10.64	$26.37	+$15.73
VeryLucky888<$100	AD Ceuta FCavg 73¢	$72	$62.78	+$0.25	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 17¢	$6.8	$5.2	-$1.6	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 30¢	$3.79	$3.66	-$0.13	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 39¢	$3.09	$3.05	-$0.04	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 5¢	$1.53	$2.76	+$1.23	45% 363-445 (808)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 29¢	$1.94	$1.94	-$0	56% 649-514 (1163)
dips.CTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 12¢	$1.2	$1.15	-$0.05	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	CD Tenerifeavg 6¢	$0.13	$0.19	+$0.06	39% 1554-2430 (3984)

GoalLineGhost

AD Ceuta FC

Invested

$3,415.39

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$51

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

RN1

AD Ceuta FC

Invested

$1,104.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.13

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$200

Value

$204

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

AD Ceuta FC$10050¢+$46

CD Tenerife$10050¢-$42

WagerWizard

AD Ceuta FC

Invested

$120.27

Value

$78.32

PnL

-$41.95

Record

51%

238-233 (471)

FlaznorpARB<$100

AD Ceuta FC

Invested

$64

Value

$68.05

PnL

+$4.05

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

AD Ceuta FC$53.3666.6¢-$11.68

CD Tenerife$10.6419.4¢+$15.73

VeryLucky888<$100

AD Ceuta FC

Invested

$72

Value

$62.78

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

LimousinCTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$6.8

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

suntoriCTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$1.53

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$1.23

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

dips.CTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

CD Tenerife

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

Research grade

NeutralAD Ceuta FC at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AD Ceuta FC

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AD Ceuta FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.