Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-11-15?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 93¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$22.73

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 92.5¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,916

Combined PnL+$51.13

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares7,960

Combined PnL-$73.86

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78.7¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$274.35	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$982.54	$948.2	-$34.34	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
NM NM-P	Noavg 80¢	$740	$740	+$0	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-P	Noavg 79.7¢	$878.69	$654.36	-$224.33	42% 547-747 (1294)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$500	$562.5	+$62.5	16% 58-297 (355)
LI Limousin	Noavg 92¢	$315.1	$316.81	+$1.71	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$157.66	$160.38	+$2.71	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$91.91	$94.21	+$2.3
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$65.75	$66.17	+$0.42
SU suntori	Noavg 79¢	$137.41	$133.97	-$3.44	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
WA WagerWizardCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$81	$132	+$51	51% 238-233 (471)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10	Noavg 53¢	$100	$105.66	+$5.66	21% 11-42 (53)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$93	$100	+$7	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$53	$54.5	+$1.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$40	$45.5	+$5.5
dips.<$100	Noavg 90¢	$73.86	$73.45	-$0.41	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$70.15	$70.71	+$0.56	46% 873-1017 (1890)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$42.24	$39.13	-$3.11	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 46.7¢	$184.02	$29.54	-$154.47	17% 74-354 (428)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$20.03	$16	+$0.15	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$9.27	$9.5	+$0.23	41% 126-183 (309)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8.41	$8.2	-$0.21	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$7.04	$7.78	+$0.74	48% 469-508 (977)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$4.55	+$0.6	46% 467-554 (1021)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$6.64	$1.78	+$0.09	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,558.56

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$274.35

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$982.54

Value

$948.2

PnL

-$34.34

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

NM-P

Invested

$740

Value

$740

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-P

Invested

$878.69

Value

$654.36

PnL

-$224.33

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$562.5

PnL

+$62.5

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

Limousin

Invested

$315.1

Value

$316.81

PnL

+$1.71

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$157.66

Value

$160.38

PnL

+$2.71

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

Both legs:

Yes$91.9120¢+$2.3

No$65.7579¢+$0.42

suntori

Invested

$137.41

Value

$133.97

PnL

-$3.44

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

WagerWizardCTR

Yes

Invested

$81

Value

$132

PnL

+$51

Record

51%

238-233 (471)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10

Invested

$100

Value

$105.66

PnL

+$5.66

Record

21%

11-42 (53)

cigarettesARB<$100

Invested

$93

Value

$100

PnL

+$7

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Both legs:

No$5353¢+$1.5

Yes$4040¢+$5.5

dips.<$100

Invested

$73.86

Value

$73.45

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$70.15

Value

$70.71

PnL

+$0.56

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$42.24

Value

$39.13

PnL

-$3.11

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$184.02

Value

$29.54

PnL

-$154.47

Record

17%

74-354 (428)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$20.03

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.23

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.41

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.21

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.78

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.6

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.64

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.