CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 5.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 60¢ · $103K held · ended Nov 2

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.3K

Combined PnL

$7.4K

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 60¢

-40% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$99.4K

Total Shares102,377

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,082

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.9¢	$100.1K	$60.0K	$-40.0K	63% 1261-735 (1996)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 97.9¢	$95.2K	$38.2K	+$47.0K	51% 21013-19995 (41008)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 0.1¢	$3	$1.2K	+$12	52% 6773-6135 (12908)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 99¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	+$376.99	49% 13653-14459 (28112)
└ Over leg	Overavg 2.4¢	$40.35	$681.85	+$641.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 99¢	$670.23	$405.86	-$264.37
FE ferdinand2CTR	Overavg 0.1¢	$2	$801	+$799	48% 5736-6182 (11918)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$1.2K	$693.86	-$451.96	95% 23410-1178 (24588)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 2¢	$1.1K	$433.38	+$412.07	50% 26673-26580 (53253)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 97.3¢	$769.11	$337.88	+$180.69	58% 48721-34848 (83569)
└ Over leg	Overavg 1.8¢	$11.21	$247.95	+$236.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 97.3¢	$145.94	$89.93	-$56.02
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 99.9¢	$500.55	$300.08	-$199.91	35% 17266-31860 (49126)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 98.3¢	$330	$197.84	-$126.56	54% 21779-18820 (40599)
RN1<$100	Underavg 98.2¢	$76.11	$45.63	-$29.11	54% 58465-50687 (109152)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$100,104.16

Value

$60.0K

PnL

$-40.0K

Record

63%

1261-735 (1996)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$95,220.86

Value

$38.2K

PnL

+$47.0K

Record

51%

21013-19995 (41008)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12

Record

52%

6773-6135 (12908)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,379.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$376.99

Record

49%

13653-14459 (28112)

Both legs:

Over$40.352.4¢+$641.35

Under$670.2399¢-$264.37

ferdinand2CTR

Over

Invested

Value

$801

PnL

+$799

Record

48%

5736-6182 (11918)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$1,157.39

Value

$693.86

PnL

-$451.96

Record

95%

23410-1178 (24588)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,082.1

Value

$433.38

PnL

+$412.07

Record

50%

26673-26580 (53253)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$769.11

Value

$337.88

PnL

+$180.69

Record

58%

48721-34848 (83569)

Both legs:

Over$11.211.8¢+$236.71

Under$145.9497.3¢-$56.02

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$500.55

Value

$300.08

PnL

-$199.91

Record

35%

17266-31860 (49126)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$330

Value

$197.84

PnL

-$126.56

Record

54%

21779-18820 (40599)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$76.11

Value

$45.63

PnL

-$29.11

Record

54%

58465-50687 (109152)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.1%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.