Will CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra end in a draw?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 90¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 2

Yes90¢No10¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 89.7¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares15,087

Combined PnL+$228.67

No6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares9,784

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 74.3¢	$5.3K	$6.2K	+$857.65	58% 49170-35288 (84458)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$3.9K	$2.6K	$-1.3K	54% 58646-50907 (109553)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$120.16
└ No leg	Noavg 40.4¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	$-1.4K
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$377.53	95% 23502-1180 (24682)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 70.6¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$217.45	51% 22704-21519 (44223)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 92.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$50.89	47% 10361-11563 (21924)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 92.1¢	$941.29	$844.7	-$97.09
└ No leg	Noavg 14.9¢	$272.64	$317.92	+$46.21
ER72SEN	Yesavg 87.3¢	$1.0K	$886.39	-$128.07	69% 353-159 (512)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 98.9¢	$995.01	$831.88	-$106.51	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
MO Momo63	Yesavg 99.5¢	$988.76	$817.21	-$166.61	94% 920-63 (983)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 7¢	$3.6K	$715.46	+$467.57	61% 13896-8904 (22800)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$494.48	$551.33	+$973.54	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
SM SmallcoinsCTR	Noavg 0.1¢	$2.86	$496.07	+$493.21	53% 1175-1048 (2223)
US User7429	Yesavg 76¢	$368	$320.25	-$78.11	56% 8605-6899 (15504)
SU suntori	Yesavg 81.8¢	$330.32	$318.03	+$0.26	45% 13246-16111 (29357)
DI dips.ARB<$100	Yesavg 90.6¢	$134.64	$253.67	+$120.67	46% 7486-8689 (16175)
└ No leg	Noavg 5.4¢	$57.68	$184.86	+$127.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.6¢	$75.4	$68.82	-$6.58
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 85.9¢	$149.27	$189.44	+$136.59	57% 11685-8789 (20474)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 85.9¢	$99.34	$95.53	-$29.99
└ No leg	Noavg 9.2¢	$49.93	$93.91	+$166.57
SM smithagent	Yesavg 97.5¢	$214.38	$180.64	-$33.74	48% 5193-5556 (10749)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$26.33	$70.2	+$43.87	50% 20001-20372 (40373)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 5.1¢	$147.71	$25.63	+$57.72	51% 6189-5920 (12109)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.11	$12.28	+$12.17	43% 9965-12961 (22926)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$0.87	-$3.83	48% 5768-6225 (11993)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$5,330.35

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$857.65

Record

58%

49170-35288 (84458)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$3,857.9

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

58646-50907 (109553)

Both legs:

Yes$1,454.6976.3¢+$120.16

No$2,403.240.4¢$-1.4K

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$2,285.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$377.53

Record

95%

23502-1180 (24682)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,273.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$217.45

Record

51%

22704-21519 (44223)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,213.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50.89

Record

47%

10361-11563 (21924)

Both legs:

Yes$941.2992.1¢-$97.09

No$272.6414.9¢+$46.21

ER72SEN

Yes

Invested

$1,014.46

Value

$886.39

PnL

-$128.07

Record

69%

353-159 (512)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$995.01

Value

$831.88

PnL

-$106.51

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

Momo63

Yes

Invested

$988.76

Value

$817.21

PnL

-$166.61

Record

94%

920-63 (983)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$3,649.48

Value

$715.46

PnL

+$467.57

Record

61%

13896-8904 (22800)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$494.48

Value

$551.33

PnL

+$973.54

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

SmallcoinsCTR

Invested

$2.86

Value

$496.07

PnL

+$493.21

Record

53%

1175-1048 (2223)

User7429

Yes

Invested

$368

Value

$320.25

PnL

-$78.11

Record

56%

8605-6899 (15504)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$330.32

Value

$318.03

PnL

+$0.26

Record

45%

13246-16111 (29357)

dips.ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$134.64

Value

$253.67

PnL

+$120.67

Record

46%

7486-8689 (16175)

Both legs:

Invested

$149.27

Value

$189.44

PnL

+$136.59

Record

57%

11685-8789 (20474)

Both legs:

Yes$99.3485.9¢-$29.99

No$49.939.2¢+$166.57

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$214.38

Value

$180.64

PnL

-$33.74

Record

48%

5193-5556 (10749)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.33

Value

$70.2

PnL

+$43.87

Record

50%

20001-20372 (40373)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$147.71

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$57.72

Record

51%

6189-5920 (12109)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$0.11

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$12.17

Record

43%

9965-12961 (22926)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$3.83

Record

48%

5768-6225 (11993)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.