Will Burgos CF win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 55¢ · $630 held · ends Nov 7

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$630.46

Combined PnL

$10.16

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$388.25

Total Shares675

Combined PnL+$9.83

No3 traders

Total Value$242.21

Total Shares570

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Yesavg 56.2¢	$278.05	$284.29	+$6.24	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$230.93	$231.19	+$0.26	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$57.98	$60.62	+$2.64	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$42.39	$43.34	+$0.95	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$6.67	$7.08	+$0.42	48% 405-446 (851)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$4.28	$3.93	-$0.35	49% 1791-1892 (3683)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$278.05

Value

$284.29

PnL

+$6.24

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$230.93

Value

$231.19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.98

Value

$60.62

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.39

Value

$43.34

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.