UD Almería vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 67¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over34¢Under66¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$20.09

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,586

Combined PnL+$76.72

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,332

Combined PnL-$96.8

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 65.1¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$76.72	49% 634-669 (1303)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$715.23	$680.4	-$34.83	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 34.6¢	$694	$661.45	-$32.55	53% 2050-1788 (3838)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 35.5¢	$177.59	$164.94	-$12.65	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$109.11	$103.62	-$5.49	48% 282-303 (585)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 36.4¢	$67.23	$60.99	-$6.24	56% 444-355 (799)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$62.52	$60.8	-$1.73	42% 970-1328 (2298)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$30.54	$27.23	-$3.3	37% 958-1625 (2583)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$3,637.66

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$76.72

Record

49%

634-669 (1303)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$715.23

Value

$680.4

PnL

-$34.83

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$694

Value

$661.45

PnL

-$32.55

Record

53%

2050-1788 (3838)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$177.59

Value

$164.94

PnL

-$12.65

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$109.11

Value

$103.62

PnL

-$5.49

Record

48%

282-303 (585)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.23

Value

$60.99

PnL

-$6.24

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.52

Value

$60.8

PnL

-$1.73

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.54

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$3.3

Record

37%

958-1625 (2583)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.