UD Almería vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 57¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 14

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 57.5¢

+30% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares18,074

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Under12 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares23,294

Combined PnL+$712.08

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 55.8¢	$10.0K	$7.8K	$-2.2K	2% 3-133 (136)
LI Limousin	Underavg 44¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$94.61	36% 937-1647 (2584)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 45¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$356.71	4% 14-384 (398)
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	— 4-7 (11)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$900	$880	-$20
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$55.65	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$839.43	$1.0K	+$161.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.8¢	$789.7	$684.1	-$105.6
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 43.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.72	49% 635-674 (1309)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	36% 443-803 (1246)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 44.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$212.71	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 44¢	$845.06	$873.87	+$28.81	37% 964-1664 (2628)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 45¢	$351.81	$343.99	-$7.82	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 58¢	$125.8	$121.51	-$4.29	55% 469-381 (850)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44¢	$89.46	$92.51	+$3.05	36% 953-1669 (2622)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$47.61	$56.72	+$9.11	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 44¢	$33.44	$33.44	+$0	48% 288-310 (598)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.05	$4.19	+$0.14	37% 972-1637 (2609)
RN1<$100	Underavg 56¢	$4	$4.03	+$0.04	55% 5370-4319 (9689)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$9,970.99

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

3-133 (136)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$2,775.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$94.61

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$1,783.53

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$356.71

Record

14-384 (398)

0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-7 (11)

Both legs:

Over$1,099.9955¢+$20

Under$90045¢-$20

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,629.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$55.65

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

Both legs:

Under$839.4344¢+$161.24

Over$789.754.8¢-$105.6

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$1,623.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.72

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$1,582.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,170.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$212.71

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$845.06

Value

$873.87

PnL

+$28.81

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$351.81

Value

$343.99

PnL

-$7.82

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$125.8

Value

$121.51

PnL

-$4.29

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$89.46

Value

$92.51

PnL

+$3.05

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$56.72

PnL

+$9.11

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$33.44

Value

$33.44

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.