Will UD Almería vs. FC Andorra end in a draw?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$55.94

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 92.5¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL-$73.9

Yes4 traders

Total Value$164.41

Total Shares828

Combined PnL+$17.96

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91¢	$373.53	$324.38	-$49.15	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.7¢	$317.51	$299.86	-$17.65	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 92.8¢	$296.95	$296	-$0.95	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$117.71	$138.89	+$21.19	37% 977-1669 (2646)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74¢	$109.97	$107	-$2.97	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$104.52	$101.69	-$2.82	37% 364-613 (977)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$23.15	$20.25	-$2.89	36% 455-810 (1265)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Noavg 92¢	$16.1	$16.19	+$0.09	49% 525-557 (1082)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 77¢	$6.72	$6.29	-$0.44	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.34	$3.8	-$0.54	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.26	$1.47	+$0.21	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

Flaznorp

Invested

$373.53

Value

$324.38

PnL

-$49.15

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$317.51

Value

$299.86

PnL

-$17.65

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$296.95

Value

$296

PnL

-$0.95

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.71

Value

$138.89

PnL

+$21.19

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

NM-P

Invested

$109.97

Value

$107

PnL

-$2.97

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

GC-P

Invested

$104.52

Value

$101.69

PnL

-$2.82

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.15

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$2.89

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.19

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.21

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.