Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will UD Almería win on 2026-11-14?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$34.78

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 47.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$495.49

Total Shares1,052

Combined PnL+$47.95

Yes6 traders

Total Value$452.27

Total Shares849

Combined PnL-$13.17

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Noavg 41.5¢	$357.16	$404.15	+$46.99	67% 14-7 (21)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$393.22	$404.09	+$10.87	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.2¢	$277.17	$301.28	+$24.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.7¢	$116.05	$102.81	-$13.24
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 53¢	$280	$277.36	-$2.64	53% 2050-1788 (3838)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$90.37	$91.33	+$0.96	49% 634-669 (1303)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$61.37	$58.58	-$2.79	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$63.82	$57.72	-$6.1	56% 444-355 (799)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 58.3¢	$29.49	$27.79	-$1.69	42% 970-1328 (2298)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$22.88	$23.1	+$0.22	37% 344-596 (940)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$7.88	$7.72	-$0.16	53% 1298-1131 (2429)

Tys0n8686CTR

Invested

$357.16

Value

$404.15

PnL

+$46.99

Record

67%

14-7 (21)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$393.22

Value

$404.09

PnL

+$10.87

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

Both legs:

No$277.1743.2¢+$24.11

Yes$116.0558.7¢-$13.24

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$280

Value

$277.36

PnL

-$2.64

Record

53%

2050-1788 (3838)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Invested

$90.37

Value

$91.33

PnL

+$0.96

Record

49%

634-669 (1303)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.37

Value

$58.58

PnL

-$2.79

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.82

Value

$57.72

PnL

-$6.1

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.49

Value

$27.79

PnL

-$1.69

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.88

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$0.22

Record

37%

344-596 (940)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.88

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.