Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$345.17

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 90.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,538

Combined PnL-$108.48

Yes6 traders

Total Value$528.57

Total Shares5,582

Combined PnL-$236.69

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 96.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$2.74	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$759.4	$1.1K	+$343.17	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.3¢	$661.63	$784.73	+$123.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.9¢	$97.76	$317.84	+$220.08
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$420	$330.75	-$89.25	33% 1175-2411 (3586)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 90.4¢	$261.47	$160.85	-$100.62	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$244.96	$108.11	-$136.85	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 84.4¢	$119.57	$78.5	-$0.27	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$55.22	$47.25	-$7.97	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$44.89	$40.3	-$4.59	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$23.37	$23.4	+$0.03	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$6.81	$21.94	+$15.13	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$36.21	$18.7	-$17.51	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$4.82	$4.53	-$0.29	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$2.07	$1.82	-$0.24	33% 1194-2378 (3572)

Limousin

Invested

$1,183.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$2.74

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$759.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$343.17

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Both legs:

No$661.6376.3¢+$123.09

Yes$97.762.9¢+$220.08

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$420

Value

$330.75

PnL

-$89.25

Record

33%

1175-2411 (3586)

LightParadox

Invested

$261.47

Value

$160.85

PnL

-$100.62

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.96

Value

$108.11

PnL

-$136.85

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Pan9X

Invested

$119.57

Value

$78.5

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.22

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$7.97

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$44.89

Value

$40.3

PnL

-$4.59

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$21.94

PnL

+$15.13

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.21

Value

$18.7

PnL

-$17.51

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$0.24

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.