AZ vs. Willem II Tilburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.5K
$16.41
69.5¢ → 99.6¢
+43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 96¢ | $653.52 | $677.69 | +$24.17 | 73% 2899-1088 (3987) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 44.4¢ | $287.33 | $644.8 | +$357.47 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 58.9¢ | $150.93 | $161.3 | +$10.37 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 42.5¢ | $377.59 | $4 | -$373.59 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $2.03 | $0.03 | -$2 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
Invested
$653.52
Value
$677.69
PnL
+$24.17
Record
73%
2899-1088 (3987)
VeryLucky888Invested
$287.33
Value
$644.8
PnL
+$357.47
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$150.93
Value
$161.3
PnL
+$10.37
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
RN1CTRInvested
$377.59
Value
$4
PnL
-$373.59
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.