Will FC Groningen win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

-$595.11

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 99.6¢

+67% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares12,553

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$447.16

Total Shares9,079

Combined PnL$-4.5K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 55.7¢	$4.6K	$7.1K	+$2.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Noavg 58.2¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$716.97	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 61.6¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$492.11	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 83.8¢	$659.34	$501.26	-$158.08	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 77.2¢	$359.55	$463.6	+$104.05	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 73.5¢	$3.2K	$416.83	$-2.8K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 59.2¢	$446.69	$313.62	+$146.8	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 89¢	$169.52	$189.71	+$20.19	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 70¢	$99.92	$142.17	+$42.25	75% 2050-688 (2738)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 84¢	$62.5	$52.81	+$0.31	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$336.35	$11.19	-$325.17	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.43	$7.44	+$0.01	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
dips.CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$460.16	$4.48	-$455.68	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$707.58	$2.57	-$705	58% 419-303 (722)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$61.43	$2.04	-$59.39	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$105.07	$1.49	-$103.58	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.6	$0.58	-$14.01	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.49	$0.55	+$0.05	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,582.23

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Invested

$1,357.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$716.97

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,341.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$492.11

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Gaditima

Invested

$659.34

Value

$501.26

PnL

-$158.08

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

WagerWizard

Invested

$359.55

Value

$463.6

PnL

+$104.05

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,223.98

Value

$416.83

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Pan9X

Invested

$446.69

Value

$313.62

PnL

+$146.8

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTime

Invested

$169.52

Value

$189.71

PnL

+$20.19

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Rocky31

Invested

$99.92

Value

$142.17

PnL

+$42.25

Record

75%

2050-688 (2738)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$62.5

Value

$52.81

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$325.17

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

dips.CTR

Yes

Invested

$460.16

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$455.68

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR

Yes

Invested

$707.58

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$705

Record

58%

419-303 (722)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.43

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$59.39

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.07

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$103.58

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.6

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$14.01

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.