Will AZ vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 79¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$631.81

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 79¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,813

Combined PnL+$570.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$842.31

Total Shares4,082

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 66.4¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$592.27	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 75.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$99.31	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$543.03	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.1¢	$682.93	$1.3K	+$617.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.1¢	$642.77	$568.03	-$74.74
38 38791873984189	Noavg 60.5¢	$610.56	$797.39	+$186.82	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$1.6K	$622.58	$-1.0K	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 100¢	$397.21	$262.42	-$134.8	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 73.2¢	$303.64	$258.06	+$34.92	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$173.04	$106.9	-$66.15	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 53.2¢	$164.22	$64.79	-$99.44	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$75.59	$48.05	-$27.54	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$56.39	$40.32	-$4.58	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 80¢	$54.62	$39.05	-$4.64	57% 22219-16567 (38786)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,406.45

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$592.27

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Gaditima

Invested

$2,081.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$99.31

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,325.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$543.03

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

No$682.9344.1¢+$617.77

Yes$642.7718.1¢-$74.74

38791873984189

Invested

$610.56

Value

$797.39

PnL

+$186.82

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,631.95

Value

$622.58

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

WagerWizard

Invested

$397.21

Value

$262.42

PnL

-$134.8

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Pan9X

Invested

$303.64

Value

$258.06

PnL

+$34.92

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$173.04

Value

$106.9

PnL

-$66.15

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.22

Value

$64.79

PnL

-$99.44

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.59

Value

$48.05

PnL

-$27.54

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$56.39

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$4.58

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$54.62

Value

$39.05

PnL

-$4.64

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.