Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (54%) · Chelsea FC at 78¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Sunderland AFC23¢Chelsea FC77¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chelsea FC

Consensus Traders

Chelsea FC 54%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$20.1

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 77.5¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChelsea FC at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea FC

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sunderland AFC23%

Chelsea FC78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chelsea FC7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,996

Combined PnL-$24.77

Sunderland AFC6 traders

Total Value$517.09

Total Shares4,006

Combined PnL+$44.87

Chelsea FC — 54%Sunderland AFC — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Chelsea FCavg 91.4¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$64.74	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
FL Flaznorp	Chelsea FCavg 80.4¢	$987.61	$1.0K	+$59.66	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189	Chelsea FCavg 91.2¢	$1.0K	$871.16	-$10.23	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Chelsea FCavg 90.5¢	$427.09	$412.84	-$14.24	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Sunderland AFCavg 23¢	$180.77	$184.7	+$3.93	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 9¢	$95.3	$90.01	-$5.29	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 9.5¢	$68.75	$72.37	+$3.62	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 8.6¢	$54.64	$66.65	+$12.01	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 10.6¢	$26.61	$56.49	+$29.88	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 8.4¢	$46.15	$46.88	+$0.73	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chelsea FCavg 90.1¢	$43.65	$29.69	-$1.87	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrio<$100	Chelsea FCavg 89.2¢	$25.04	$24.84	-$0.19	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
GH ghorrock<$100	Chelsea FCavg 91¢	$15.79	$17.66	+$6.86	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

nigiri99

Chelsea FC

Invested

$3,153.39

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$64.74

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Flaznorp

Chelsea FC

Invested

$987.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$59.66

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189

Chelsea FC

Invested

$1,030.02

Value

$871.16

PnL

-$10.23

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

xtxpleasecallme

Chelsea FC

Invested

$427.09

Value

$412.84

PnL

-$14.24

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

MadridTimeCTR

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$180.77

Value

$184.7

PnL

+$3.93

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$95.3

Value

$90.01

PnL

-$5.29

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$68.75

Value

$72.37

PnL

+$3.62

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$54.64

Value

$66.65

PnL

+$12.01

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$26.61

Value

$56.49

PnL

+$29.88

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$46.15

Value

$46.88

PnL

+$0.73

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

Pan9X<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$43.65

Value

$29.69

PnL

-$1.87

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrio<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$25.04

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$0.19

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

ghorrock<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$15.79

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$6.86

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralChelsea FC at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea FC

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chelsea FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.