Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$2.3K
-$81.91
90.3¢ → 50¢
-45% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $87.51 | $811.06 | +$723.54 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 RN1 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $1.2K | $796.54 | -$434.25 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 89.1¢ | $267.35 | $150.01 | -$117.34 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 86.7¢ | $227.34 | $131.09 | -$96.25 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97.4¢ | $227.56 | $116.79 | -$110.77 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065 | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $92.48 | $100 | +$7.53 | 65% 265-145 (410) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.7¢ | $175.72 | $90.82 | -$84.9 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $28.98 | $45.45 | +$16.47 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yes | $16.5 | $16.5 | +$16.5 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $6.06 | $5.41 | -$0.65 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $4.28 | $2.5 | -$1.78 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
Invested
$87.51
Value
$811.06
PnL
+$723.54
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
RN1Invested
$1,230.79
Value
$796.54
PnL
-$434.25
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$267.35
Value
$150.01
PnL
-$117.34
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
$227.34
Value
$131.09
PnL
-$96.25
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$227.56
Value
$116.79
PnL
-$110.77
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$92.48
Value
$100
PnL
+$7.53
Record
65%
265-145 (410)
Invested
$175.72
Value
$90.82
PnL
-$84.9
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$45.45
PnL
+$16.47
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$16.5
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$5.41
PnL
-$0.65
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1.78
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
Yes — $811.06
RN1
No — $796.54
LuckyLoo
No — $150.01
MadridTime
No — $131.09
Venusian
No — $116.79
0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065
Yes — $100
LightParadox
No — $90.82
Flaznorp
Yes — $45.45
xtxpleasecallme
Yes — $16.5
VeryLucky888
No — $5.41