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6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$387.71

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 63¢

-30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,247

Combined PnL-$603.69

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,481

Combined PnL+$991.4

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 90.7¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$459.89	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$193.7	$715.1	+$521.4	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$370	+$356.11	28% 1154-3035 (4189)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82.8¢	$322.68	$245.38	-$77.3	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$74.12	$169.51	+$95.39	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$52.69	$133.63	+$80.94	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.1¢	$5.71	$100.64	+$94.93
└ No leg	Noavg 89.7¢	$46.98	$32.99	-$14
38 38791873984189	Noavg 97.1¢	$149.62	$97.11	-$52.51	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$14.2	$31.86	+$17.67	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$19.64	$12.6	-$7.04	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$18.07	$12.6	-$5.47	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$4.63	$3.15	-$1.48	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$1.02	$1.86	+$0.84	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,504.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$459.89

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$193.7

Value

$715.1

PnL

+$521.4

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$370

PnL

+$356.11

Record

28%

1154-3035 (4189)

Flaznorp

Invested

$322.68

Value

$245.38

PnL

-$77.3

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.12

Value

$169.51

PnL

+$95.39

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$52.69

Value

$133.63

PnL

+$80.94

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Yes$5.712.1¢+$94.93

No$46.9889.7¢-$14

38791873984189

Invested

$149.62

Value

$97.11

PnL

-$52.51

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.2

Value

$31.86

PnL

+$17.67

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.64

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$7.04

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$18.07

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$5.47

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.48

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.